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2009 State of US Housing, Real Estate Market
The housing marketing sector showed continuing signs of improvement in the fourth quarter of 2009. The number of existing homes sold rose sharply in the fourth quarter and the median sales price of new homes remained steady, but the number of new homes sold fell and the median sales price for existing homes declined slightly. The average months’ supply of homes for sale decreased substantially for existing homes and also declined for new homes. Builders’ confidence, as measured by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, was nearly flat, dropping marginally because of decreased prospective buyer traffic.
■ During the fourth quarter of 2009, 373,000 (SAAR) new single-family homes were sold, down 8 percent from the 406,000 (SAAR) homes sold in the third quarter of 2009 and down 5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008.
■ REALTORS® sold 6.027 million (SAAR) existing single-family homes in the fourth quarter of 2009, up 14 percent from the third quarter of 2009 and up 27 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. According to a NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR) practitioner survey, sales to new homebuyers accounted for 48 percent of all home sales transactions in the fourth quarter of 2009.
■ The median price of new homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2009 was $214,700, virtually the same as in the third quarter of 2009 but 4 percent less than in the fourth quarter of 2008. The average price of new homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2009 was $270,500, down 1 percent from the third quarter and down 2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. A constant-quality house would have sold for $284,800 in the fourth quarter of 2009, up 2 percent from the third quarter but virtually the same as in the fourth quarter of 2008.
■ NAR reported that the median price of existing homes sold was $173,500 in the fourth quarter of 2009, down 3 percent from the third quarter of 2009 and down 8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. The average price of existing homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2009 was $218,200, down 3 percent from the third quarter and down 6 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. According to a NAR practitioner survey, distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) represented 32 percent of all home sales in the fourth quarter of 2009, up slightly from 30 percent in the third quarter. Distressed-sale prices are typically 15 to 20 percent below normal market prices.
■ During the fourth quarter of 2009, the average inventory of new homes for sale was 236,000 units, down 10 percent from the third quarter of 2009 and down 36 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. That inventory would support 7.6 months of sales at the current sales pace, down 0.1 month from the third quarter of 2009 and down 3.6 months from the fourth quarter of 2008. The average inventory of existing homes for sale in the fourth quarter of 2009 was 3.458 million units, down 11 percent from the third quarter and 14 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. That inventory would support 6.9 months of sales at the current sales pace, down 2.0 months from the third quarter of 2009 and down 3.3 months from the fourth quarter of 2008. The “shadow inventory” of homes, resulting from foreclosures and delinquencies, however, has the potential to increase the supply of homes for sale and further depress home prices.
■ The Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA’s) share of the mortgage market increased in the third quarter of 2009 (the data are reported with a lag). Based on loan origination data, the FHA’s dollar volume share of the mortgage market was 17.1 percent in the third quarter of 2009, up 1.2 percentage points from the second quarter of 2009 but down 7.4 percentage points from the third quarter of 2008. Based on the number of loans originated, the FHA’s share of the mortgage market was 20.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009, up 1.9 percentage points from the second quarter of 2009 but down 8.2 percentage points from the third quarter of 2008.
■ Home builders’ optimism fell slightly in the fourth quarter of 2009, mainly due to decreased prospective homebuyer traffic. The NAHB/Wells Fargo composite Housing Market Index was 17 in the fourth quarter of 2009, down 1 point from the third quarter of 2009 but up 6 points from the fourth quarter of 2008. The index is based on three components—current market activity, future sales expectations, and prospective buyer traffic—and ranges from 0 to 100.
Source: HUD
This is a blog post for Real Estate Professionals, Investors, Landlord, Property Manager, and Property Management Companies. 2009 4th Quarter Real Estate Market Data – The State of Marketing of Housing is brought to you by SimplifyEm Pay Rent Online and Property Management SoftwareYou might also want to read:
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